Modeling Introduction

What are some examples of mathematical models that may be used to value hydrological benefits from Protected Areas?

Modeling can cover a wide variety of tools and methods, with diverse data requirements. Below are a few examples from the wide range of models that may already gave been used in your region:

Before using any modeling results, establishing the credibility of the method and data used and demonstrating the validity of the results against measured data are essential steps that should not be skipped.

How have these models been applied?

1. Through modeling for current conditions only, under which an estimate of the direct benefit can be made (such as flood storage capacity).
2. Through scenario modeling for change in policy, demand or state of protected area, extrapolated from current trends or certain policy preferences. In this case, relative change in benefit (such as impact on downstream water quantity if protected area gets converted to plantation) can be evaluated.
3. Through scenario modeling for hypothetical loss of ecosystem. This is drawn from equivalent analysis from economics, where the economic value of an asset is determined by considering its impact if the asset is completely removed. An example of this will be changes to water regulation if forest cover of protected area is completly removed to bare landcover.

What will be some consideration in selecting an appropriate model for evaluating benefits?

Watch Managing Landscapes to Manage Water: How much do you REALLY need to know? by Dr. Kate Brauman (Available for CI staff only) or read her team's paper Producing valuable information from hydrologic models of nature-based solutions for water